NFL Picks - Week 4

NFL Picks - Week 4

Last Week: 4-8-2 Season: 20-24-2

I make picks every week on the spread. You're catching me in the middle of it, but I'm sure you'll still enjoy.

ATLANTA (-7) over Arizona

Last week = fluke. Oh, and the Cards can't make up their mind on who to start. That never helps.

CAROLINA (-7) over New Orleans

I'm not sure about making this team a 7-point favorite against the 3-0 Saints. But the Letdown Factor is definitely at play here, along with the Monday Night Game Followed By a Road Game Corollary. And if you look at it, the Panthers should have won last week more like 34-7 instead of 26-24. They turned the ball over three times in their own territory, which isn't likely to happen again. I think the Panthers are going to win, but I wouldn't be shocked if they lost. However, this is a must-win game for the Panthers, who'd fall three games out of first with a loss.

This is all a roundabout way of saying that Carolina almost always wins must-win games. And this one will be another one.

Minnesota (+1) over BUFFALO

Was that the real J.P. Losman last week...or the real one two weeks before?

My bet's the former.

San Diego (-2.5) over BALTIMORE

The Sports Guy ranked the Chargers No. 1 in the league in his column this week. I'm not sure I agree with him. But I do think the Bolts are more than good enough to win this game against a bad offense.

Miami (-3.5) over HOUSTON

I don't see any reason to pick the Texans until they win.

TENNESSEE (+9) over Dallas

A key rule in on the spread picking: Be leery of giving more than a touchdown to a home underdog when the road team's wide receiver may have tried to kill himself last week.

San Francisco (+7) over KANSAS CITY

A month ago I picked the Chiefs to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Now I'm picking them to lose to the NFL's worst 2005 QB at home.

Welcome to the NFL.

Indianapolis (-9) over NY JETS

Another rout. Is it just me or do the Colts never seem to play more than two tough games in the first five games of any given season?

ST. LOUIS (-5.5) over Detroit

It's stupid how close the Lions are to being 0-16 right now.

Jacksonville (-3) over WASHINGTON

If the Jags are for real, they'll rebound from last week's tough loss in Indy to beat a decent Skins team on the road.

New England (+6) over CINCINNATI

Only the Patriots can convince me to pick them on the road against a playoff team with their joke of a receiving corps.

Cleveland (-3) over OAKLAND

A fellow poster of mine on North Side Baseball said it best: "The Raiders should never be getting less than 7 points against anyone."

CHICAGO (-3) over Seattle

This was picked for Seattle before Alexander was struck by the Madden Curse.

Green Bay (+11) over PHILADELPHIA

Next week is T.O. This week is way too many points being given to GB.